At first glance, each of the three finals in Doha, Rotterdam, and San Jose features a distinct favorite against a distinct underdog. Whether related to head-to-head records or relative accomplishments, these lopsided pairings trigger a sense of looming anticlimax. But should they? We discuss.
Azarenka vs. Stosur: Having lost no more than six games in any of her last five matches, Azarenka has grown more confident and hence more dominant throughout her sixteen-match winning streak. Not even a sudden ankle injury could deflect her assault in her most comprehensive victory over Radwanska to date as she passed her first notable test as world #1 with flying colors. Attempting to do what Serena, Henin, Navratilova, Graf, and more failed to do, Azarenka now seeks to emulate her fellow top dog Djokovic in claiming the title at her first tournament after reaching the penthouse. If one sets aside the uncertainty surrounding her ankle, she looks well positioned to accomplish that goal, for she has won all ten of her sets against Stosur and lost more than five games in only one of their five meetings, all on hard courts. On a faster court in Istanbul last fall, she broke the Australian’s imposing serve without difficulty while exploiting her more balanced groundstrokes. As she prepares for her fifth consecutive final, she should gain confidence from her creditable performances in each of the previous four, which included three wins and a valiant three-set loss to Kvitova. By contrast, Stosur more often than not has struggled in finals and has won only three career titles, far fewer than one would expect from a player of her talents. Realistically, therefore, a seventeenth straight win and third straight title look almost a foregone conclusion, even if anything can happen in the chaotic WTA....
On second thought, didn’t most of us brush aside Stosur’s chances with equal nonchalance before she battled Serena for the US Open crown? Turning the tables both on the heavy favorite and on her own past, the Australian seemed to convince herself that she could challenge the leading contenders in her sport. That triumph may have spawned a hangover in the short term but also seemed to spawn greater confidence against players who had feasted upon her before, such as Sharapova. Throttled by the Russian in their first nine meetings, Stosur finally broke through in Istanbul last fall to prove that no player defeats her ten straight times. Outside a second-set lapse against Niculescu, she has looked confident this week on a surface that allows her time to set up her heavy forehand without significantly blunting her serve. Her dismal record against Azarenka might not intimidate her as much as it did before, then, especially if she can start the match positively. As demonstrated by Serena and Kvitova, elite servers can frustrate Azarenka, who serves at a high percentage herself but does not win many free points from her delivery. In fact, Stosur enjoys almost as great an advantage in second serves as in first serves, not only double-faulting less often than the Belarussian but also penetrating the service box more effectively with that stroke.
A glance across the WTA rankings, however, will reveal that the most important shot in the WTA now is not the serve. Instead, the two best returners in Azarenka and Sharapova loom atop the hierarchy above two of the best servers in Kvitova and Stosur. (Arguably still the best server in the WTA, Serena lacks a comparable ranking simply because of her reduced schedule, so one cannot include her in this comparison.) Breaking serve in more than 60% of her return games this year, Azarenka has allowed opponents only seven total holds in four Doha matches. Repeated incursions onto Stosur’s serve usually erode her confidence in her game overall, so a break-dominated final would tilt towards the world #1’s advantage. On the other hand, a match defined by service holds would allow the third seed to settle into a comfortable rhythm while heightening the frustration of Azarenka, perhaps already edgy if troubled by her ankle. Can she emulate Djokovic and defeat a leading rival to win a prominent title even while physically compromised?
Federer vs. Del Potro: Undefeated indoors since the US Open, Federer seeks his fourth consecutive title under a roof after surviving unexpectedly stern resistance from fellow 30-year-old Davydenko. Despite his advancing age, declining ranking, and a career of futility against the GOAT, the Russian spared no energies in a fierce semifinal that he often seemed likely to win. With his survival at stake, though, Federer found consecutive aces to shift the momentum in his favor for good, overcoming the frailty that flared sporadically from his racket. Little frailty emerged from Del Potro’s racket during a resounding victory over Berdych in the other semifinal, his first non-retirement victory over a top-10 opponent since last May. Between the Australian Open and Roland Garros in 2011 surfaced the Argentine’s finest tennis of that season, and this finals appearance might signal a similar burst of productivity. The former US Open champion has excelled on North American hard courts before, so perhaps that prospect infuses him with motivation to accumulate as much momentum as he can for Indian Wells and Miami.
Nevertheless, Del Potro lacks any shred of momentum in his rivalries with the top three, beaten thoroughly by Federer last summer and in Melbourne last month while absorbing two losses to Nadal and another to Djokovic within the past year. Not until he reverses the trajectory in at least one of those rivalries can one consider his comeback complete, and an “if” rather than “when” probably should precede that question. His generally tepid effort against Federer in January rarely resembled the fearless shot-making of his victories over the Swiss in 2009. Too cautious with his groundstrokes during the recent loss, Del Potro allowed his opponent to seize the initiative from the baseline despite his advantage in raw power. If that trend continues, Federer probably benefits more from this surface than his taller foe, for the indoor court requires fewer shots to finish points. In 2005, he won the Rotterdam event over another powerful but overly gentle giant in Ivan Ljubicic. Seven years and forty-six titles later, the task looks strikingly similar, as should the resolution.
Raonic vs. Istomin: Unbroken in 32 service games through three matches, the defending champion in San Jose responded with poise to his only true test of the tournament. Serving at 5-4 in the first-set tiebreak of his semifinal, Raonic delivered an ace and then patiently constructed the next rally around a series of inside-out forehands delivered aggressively but not recklessly. His impenetrability on serve itself can demoralize opponents, as it did Harrison in a routine second set, and his vast experience with playing close sets inoculates him to pressure much like Isner. In his previous 2012 final, the Canadian-via-Montenegro endured three tiebreaks before upsetting world #9 Tipsarevic, who achieved the unusual feat of losing the match without losing his serve. A year ago on this court, Raonic won two tiebreaks from Verdasco in a similarly serve-dominated encounter and then split two more tiebreaks with Roddick in his only other final a week later. Spectators in the final thus should feel disappointed if they do not witness a thirteenth game.
Contesting only the second final of his career and seeking his debut title, Denis Istomin finds himself the clear underdog despite two victories over seeded opponents. But Raonic thrived in a parallel situation here last year, swinging freely and making the most of his opportunity. For that matter, Radek Stepanek also defied the odds when he ambushed Mardy Fish in 2009 and Verdasco when he toppled Roddick in 2010. This history of unexpected denouements in San Jose finals, which have featured three final-set tiebreaks in the last decade, hints at a more intriguing Sunday than the relative accomplishments of these players would suggest. Although clearly less formidable on serve, Istomin has surrendered only two breaks in his last three matches (seven sets) and has enjoyed surprising success at the net. His smooth two-handed backhand represents his main advantage, but one wonders whether he can pin the Canadian behind the baseline often enough and long enough to profit from that weapon. Rather than letting his much taller opponent dictate points and consistently charge towards the net, however, Istomin must impose his own presence by stretching Raonic laterally and testing his uneven footwork. Each time that he threatens the latter’s serve will register as a meaningful achievement in itself.
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