Staining the sands of the Qatari desert was the carnage of Doha seeds that climaxed on Wednesday with the exodus of seven bold-faced names. When the storm subsided, four of the top-five seeds survived to face unseeded underdogs in the quarterfinals. We consider each of these matches from the perspective of the names not in bold, whose presence lends unexpected curiosity to this Premier Five tournament.
Wickmayer (vs. Azarenka): Born just three months after her opponent on Friday, this athletic star has stagnated below the level expected of her. During the first half of each season, Wickmayer launches a promising charge at a significant tournament, whether a second-week run at the 2010 Australian Open or a semifinal appearance at Indian Wells last year. Unable to sustain that momentum thus far, she has suffered a disproportionate number of losses puzzling for their margin or the anonymity of their opponent or both, as in her thrashing by Mona Barthel in the Hobart final. But a trip to the semifinals of the Paris Indoors, which included revenge against Barthel, hinted at one of Wickmayer’s sporadic resurgences. Here, she dispatched the seventh-seeded albeit struggling Schiavone, extending a bizarre 4-0 record against a player far superior in accomplishments. Not since Dubai last year had Wickmayer defeated a top-10 opponent, so the courts and conditions on the Persian Gulf clearly suit her style. When she faces the top-ranked woman in the world, the top-ranked woman from Belgium will want to serve aggressively and organize rallies from forehand to forehand, her stronger and Azarenka’s (slightly) weaker wing. To avoid becoming the latest Viktim of the Australian champion, she also should aim to display more positive emotion in adversity than she has in previous meetings with the elite. Azarenka’s only losses since last July have come against Serena or a player currently in the top 10, and she has looked intimidatingly focused this week despite the obvious hangover potential. Prognosis: Grim.
McHale (vs. Radwanska): After she announced herself with victories over Wozniacki and Bartoli last summer, McHale upset the dangerous Safarova at the Australian Open. Unlike Wickmayer, her career has advanced in a generally linear trajectory as she has capably handled the pressure of succeeding the Williams sisters. Especially notable this week was McHale’s victory over Peng, a higher-ranked opponent who had crushed her in Tokyo last fall. Her ability to reverse that result illustrates her rapid progress in recent months, while her comeback over the feisty Peer a round ago confirmed her competitive tenacity. Nevertheless, tenacity alone will not carry her past Radwanska, who lost only one game when they met last summer and has won at least one set in every match that she has played this year. Opponents with a reasonably solid offense always will have a chance against the Pole, who remains one of the least imposing servers in the top 20. More of a natural counterpuncher than a shot-maker as well, McHale has honed a fine forehand but has shown an aversion to risk during rallies. That trait cost her dearly in her loss to Jankovic at the Australian Open, when she wavered in deciding whether to pull the trigger or extend the point. Usually a humbling experience for rising players, Radwanska invariably finds a way to expose the flaws in an adversary’s game or mind, so a test of the American’s maturity awaits. She might find this match a valuable educational experience, but McHale doesn’t fit the profile of the typical Pole-vaulter. Prognosis: Doubtful.
Niculescu (vs. Stosur): A surprise semifinalist in Beijing last fall, the female Santoro has ceded her nation’s spotlight to countrywoman Cirstea but may have performed better in 2012 than her results would suggest. Toppled by then-#1 Wozniacki at the Australian Open, she lost to eventual champion Zheng in Auckland and eventual champion Kerber at the Paris Indoors. In contrast to those thorny early draws was her route through the first three rounds, during which she annihilated the enigmatic Vesnina, received a walkover from Zvonareva, and dispatched the qualifier Kateryna Bondarenko. Clearly surpassed by Stosur in raw power, Niculescu has won more than two games in only one of the four sets that they have played, all in the 2009 US Open Series. Her hopes of reversing those results will hinge upon whether she can survive the first blow or two from the Australian and earn herself the time to start chipping and slicing the ball towards unexpected regions of the court. Against an opponent who relies on rhythm as much as Stosur does, such disruptive tactics could coax the unforced errors that the US Open champion sprayed throughout her early losses this year. In theory, the heavily favored woman should win this match comfortably, but Niculescu might frustrate her if she can stay within range early in the match and if Stosur’s first serve misfires. Prognosis: Unclear.
Safarova (vs. Bartoli): Of the four underdogs, Safarova has accumulated the strongest credentials and advanced through the most arduous route. After she saved triple match point in an epic against Wozniacki, she defeated two-time major champion Kuznetsova more efficiently. Mounting fatigue still may become a factor for this second-ranked Czech lefty, who had won only one of her last eight completed matches before this week (a first-round victory over Ivanovic in Sydney). Yet streakiness long has plagued Safarova, so this sudden explosion merely continues a trend of rising or sinking to the level of the competition. Successful in only one of five attempts against Bartoli, she forced the Frenchwoman to three sets in three of her losses, including two in which she won the first set. Their most recent meeting at Eastbourne culminated in a third-set tiebreak that Safarova surrendered only after sixteen points. Disappointing at the Australian Open, Bartoli reached the final at the Paris Indoors in unremarkable fashion and then uncharacteristically played her worst tennis when the match hung in the balance. Immediately after letting a stirring triumph in her home nation slip away, though, she demonstrated her spirit by rolling through routine victories here. Balancing Safarova’s serving superiority is Bartoli’s stinging return, which pits strength against strength in the most intriguing of the Doha quarterfinals. Prognosis: Promising.
We return to preview the Doha semifinals and perhaps glance across some of the ATP weekend action as well.
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